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SCHEDULEDCentre Bell · Nov 15
COLCOL
—@—
MTLMTL
COL rest: 1dMTL rest: 1d
COLaway
49%
at
MTLhome
51%
Win probability2-pt gap
Model pick
MTL · 51% to win

Key signals

Team Offense (Goal Model)Home IceInjuriesTeam Defense (Goal Model)Projected Goaltending

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

Projected score

COL
3.1
–
MTL
3.0

Most likely final: MTL 2–3 COL

MTL win
49%
COL win
51%
Goes to OT/SO
24%

Likeliest scorelines

  1. MTL 2 – 3 COL8%
  2. MTL 3 – 2 COL8%
  3. MTL 3 – 4 COL7%
  4. MTL 4 – 3 COL7%
  5. MTL 1 – 2 COL5%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals
53%
7+ total goals
43%
MTL by 2+
23%
COL by 2+
25%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

  • Team OffenseMTL scoring +4% vs league average, COL +16% (time-weighted goal model).-0.32
  • Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to MTL.+0.19
  • InjuriesMTL without Josh Anderson, Mike Matheson, Ivan Demidov; COL without Josh Manson.-0.15
  • Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Jacob Fowler (MTL) +0.08 g/gm; Mackenzie Blackwood (COL) -0.03 g/gm.+0.10
  • Team DefenseMTL allowing -2% vs league average, COL +1%.+0.09
  • Recent Form & Shot MetricsGoals model on recent results, rest, shots, special teams and shot-attempt share: MTL 3.05 vs COL 3.09 expected goals before goalie, injury and market adjustments.+0.02

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Lineups

COL

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
11:00
62Lehkonen
18:32
29MacKinnon
19:49
88Necas
19:07
L2
5:48
92Landeskog
14:05
91Kadri
16:40
11Nelson
16:31
L3
6:15
71Schwartz
15:13
9Svechkov
10:53
13Hughes
17:18
L4
2:48
16Makar
5:02
17Kelly
12:35
25O'Connor
11:46
D1
12:26
8Makar
23:16
7Toews
20:06
D2
13:07
27Kulak
22:42
70Malinski
19:44
D3
10:01
42Manson
13:45
84Burns
12:48
39Blackwood
0:00
Starter
41Wedgewood
59:54
Backup

Injured / Scratched

MTL

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
11:45
20Slafkovský
17:29
91Kapanen
15:56
13Caufield
16:21
L2
8:58
22Kreider
12:49
15Newhook
17:47
17Anderson
17:06
L3
6:56
85Texier
11:58
24Danault
19:21
76Bolduc
12:19
L4
5:38
63Xhekaj
6:19
71Evans
15:24
77Dach
13:11
D1
12:37
8Matheson
23:25
21Guhle
22:47
D2
13:28
48Hutson
22:04
53Dobson
19:35
D3
5:47
45Carrier
20:08
42Engstrom
10:23
32Fowler
59:38
Starter
75Dobes
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

  • Bryce Pickfordinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
  • Lucas Condottainjured-reserve · Undisclosed
  • Nick Suzukiother · Upper Body
  • Sam Montembeaultinjured-reserve · Lower Body
  • Ivan Demidovinjured-reserve · Lower Body

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice