OTTaway
44%at
VGKhome
56%Win probability12-pt gap
Model pick
VGK · 56% to win
Key signals
Home IceInjuriesProjected GoaltendingMarket Consensus BlendTeam Offense (Goal Model)
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINALT-Mobile Arena · Oct 28
OTT rest: 3dVGK rest: 3d
Ottawa Senators at Vegas Golden Knights: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.
Game analysis
Golden Knights beat Senators 4–1
- R. Lavoie scored the game-winner at 8:01 of the third.
- 2 empty-net goals sealed it late.
- A. Hill stopped 25 of 26 shots (.962) for the win.
- Power play: VGK 1/2, OTT 1/3.
- HabsMetrics model had the Golden Knights as 56% favourites — it called this one.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
Scoring summary
1st
No scoring
2nd
- 19:49VGKB. BowmanPPVideoAssists: I. Barbashev, S. Theodore0–1
3rd
- 0:34OTTS. PintoPPVideoAssists: D. Batherson1–1
- 8:01VGKR. LavoieVideoAssists: N. Dowd, V. Heinola1–2
- 18:00VGKW. KarlssonENVideoAssists: T. Connelly, M. Marner1–3
- 19:53VGKJ. EichelENVideoAssists: M. Stone1–4
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
OTTVGK
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 24 | 14 |
| Blocked | 6 | 24 |
| Power Play | 1/3 | 1/2 |
| Faceoff % | 52.8 | 47.2 |
| Corsi % | 54.4 | 45.6 |
| xG | 2.82 | 5.11 |
| Giveaways | 10 | 24 |
| Takeaways | 4 | 1 |
Vegas Golden Knights
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 21:16 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:46 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 08:20 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11:35 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 18:40 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 20:08 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 20:07 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 21:40 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 14:31 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 21:13 | |
| -- | -- | 40/41 | -- | .976 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 25/26 | -- | .962 | 00:00 |
Ottawa Senators
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 23:06 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | 17:25 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 22:47 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 07:10 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:01 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 17:30 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 17:47 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:56 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 15:52 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:37 | |
| -- | -- | 45/49 | -- | .918 | 58:07 | |
| -- | -- | 25/29 | -- | .862 | 00:00 |
Projected score
OTT
2.8
–
VGK
3.2
Most likely final: VGK 3–2 OTT · Actual: 4–1
- VGK win
- 56%
- OTT win
- 44%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 24%
Likeliest scorelines
- VGK 3 – 2 OTT9%
- VGK 2 – 3 OTT8%
- VGK 4 – 3 OTT7%
- VGK 3 – 4 OTT6%
- VGK 2 – 1 OTT6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 52%
- 7+ total goals
- 42%
- VGK by 2+
- 28%
- OTT by 2+
- 20%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to VGK.+0.16
- InjuriesOTT without Thomas Chabot, William Eklund.+0.13
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Carter Hart (VGK) -0.03 g/gm; Linus Ullmark (OTT) +0.10 g/gm.-0.13
- Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.+0.09
- Team OffenseVGK scoring +5% vs league average, OTT +2% (time-weighted goal model).+0.08
- Team DefenseVGK allowing -4% vs league average, OTT -3%.+0.02
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
OTT
Actual (from shift data)L1
7:52
L4
3:36
Injured / Scratched
- Thomas Chabotother · Upper Body
- Linus Ullmarkinjured-reserve · Lower Body (Strain)
- William Eklundinjured-reserve · Ankle
VGK
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Parker Wotherspooninjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Carter Hartother · Undisclosed
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice