NYIaway
45%at
DALhome
55%Win probability10-pt gap
Model pick
DAL · 55% to win
Key signals
Team Defense (Goal Model)Home IceTeam Offense (Goal Model)InjuriesProjected Goaltending
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINALAmerican Airlines Center · Oct 25
NYI rest: 2dDAL rest: 1d
New York Islanders at Dallas Stars: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.
Game analysis
Stars beat Islanders 6–3
- W. Johnston scored the game-winner at 4:10 of the third.
- J. Oettinger stopped 16 of 19 shots (.842) for the win.
- The Stars controlled play, outshooting the Islanders 38–19.
- Power play: DAL 1/2, NYI 0/3.
- J. Robertson led all scorers with 2 goals and 0 assists.
- HabsMetrics model had the Stars as 55% favourites — it called this one.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starJ. Robertson
DAL · 2G 0A
- 2nd starW. Johnston
DAL · 1G 1A
- 3rd starT. Seguin
DAL · 1G 1A
Scoring summary
1st
2nd
- 4:01NYIK. PalmieriVideoAssists: R. Pulock, B. Horvat2–2
- 10:52DALJ. HryckowianPPVideoAssists: T. Harley, W. Johnston2–3
- 17:45NYIB. SchennVideoAssists: A. Duclair, E. Heineman3–3
3rd
- 4:10DALW. JohnstonVideoAssists: N. Lundkvist, J. Kiviranta3–4
- 9:45DALJ. RobertsonVideoAssists: T. Seguin, R. Hintz3–5
- 13:02DALM. RantanenVideoAssists: L. Bichsel3–6
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
NYIDAL
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 29 | 9 |
| Blocked | 13 | 13 |
| Power Play | 0/3 | 1/2 |
| Faceoff % | 55.0 | 45.0 |
| Corsi % | -- | -- |
| xG | 2.01 | 3.88 |
| Giveaways | 17 | 13 |
| Takeaways | 4 | 1 |
Dallas Stars
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 18:58 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 16:17 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 20:15 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14:52 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 12:15 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 13:08 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:54 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 18:52 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 0 | 18:20 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 0 | 18:10 | |
| -- | -- | 27/30 | -- | .900 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 16/19 | -- | .842 | 00:00 |
New York Islanders
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:18 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 16:10 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:00 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 14:37 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 16:58 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:06 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 26:16 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:22 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:37 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:23 | |
| -- | -- | 44/50 | -- | .880 | 59:56 | |
| -- | -- | 32/38 | -- | .842 | 00:00 |
Projected score
NYI
2.2
–
DAL
2.5
Most likely final: DAL 2–1 NYI · Actual: 6–3
- DAL win
- 55%
- NYI win
- 45%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 29%
Likeliest scorelines
- DAL 2 – 1 NYI11%
- DAL 3 – 2 NYI10%
- DAL 1 – 2 NYI10%
- DAL 2 – 3 NYI9%
- DAL 4 – 3 NYI5%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 30%
- 7+ total goals
- 22%
- DAL by 2+
- 24%
- NYI by 2+
- 18%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team DefenseDAL allowing -17% vs league average, NYI -10%.+0.24
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to DAL.+0.14
- Team OffenseDAL scoring -7% vs league average, NYI -5% (time-weighted goal model).-0.05
- InjuriesDAL without Oskar Back, Sam Steel, Radek Faksa; NYI without Calum Ritchie, Matias Maccelli, Alexander Romanov.-0.03
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Jake Oettinger (DAL) +0.08 g/gm; Ilya Sorokin (NYI) +0.08 g/gm.+0.00
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
NYI
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Calum Ritchieother · Lower Body
- Matias Maccelliother · Left Lower Body
- Alexander Romanovinjured-reserve · Right Knee (Surgery)
- Mathew Barzalinjured-reserve · Knee
DAL
Actual (from shift data)L3
4:55
L4
3:37
D3
11:54
57Myers
20:04
15:01
Injured / Scratched
- Radek Faksaother · Lower Body
- Oskar Backlong-term-injured-reserve · Finger (Fracture)
- Esa Lindellinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Sam Steelother · Undisclosed
- Matt Duchenelong-term-injured-reserve · Abdomen
- Luke Krysinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Cameron Hughesinjured-reserve · Upper Body
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice