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SCHEDULEDCanada Life Centre · Nov 11
NJDNJD
—@—
WPGWPG
NJD rest: 1dWPG rest: 1d
NJDaway
65%
at
WPGhome
35%
Win probability30-pt gap
Model pick
NJD · 65% to win

Key signals

score_goals_modelTeam Offense (Goal Model)Team Defense (Goal Model)Home IceInjuries

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

Projected score

NJD
3.6
–
WPG
2.7

Most likely final: WPG 2–3 NJD

WPG win
35%
NJD win
65%
Goes to OT/SO
22%

Likeliest scorelines

  1. WPG 2 – 3 NJD8%
  2. WPG 3 – 4 NJD7%
  3. WPG 3 – 2 NJD6%
  4. WPG 4 – 3 NJD6%
  5. WPG 1 – 2 NJD5%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals
57%
7+ total goals
47%
WPG by 2+
14%
NJD by 2+
39%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

  • Recent Form & Shot MetricsGoals model on recent results, rest, shots, special teams and shot-attempt share: WPG 2.65 vs NJD 3.54 expected goals before goalie, injury and market adjustments.-0.55
  • Team OffenseWPG scoring -8% vs league average, NJD +2% (time-weighted goal model).-0.32
  • Team DefenseWPG allowing +4% vs league average, NJD -2%.-0.19
  • Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to WPG.+0.19
  • InjuriesWPG without Nick Bjugstad, Haydn Fleury, Josh Morrissey.-0.12
  • Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Stuart Skinner (WPG) -0.05 g/gm; Jake Allen (NJD) -0.03 g/gm.-0.02

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Lineups

NJD

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
10:51
28Meier
17:27
13Hischier
18:12
77Evangelista
18:40
L2
11:00
63Bratt
15:35
86Hughes
17:19
81Gritsyuk
17:48
L3
9:15
70Boqvist
13:59
17Rodrigues
16:22
RW
L4
7:23
93Lombardi
11:35
12Glass
12:13
16Brown
10:15
D1
17:38
43Hughes
23:39
22Pesce
21:52
D2
13:41
71Siegenthaler
20:45
7Hamilton
17:54
D3
9:42
8Kovacevic
16:33
47Chisholm
15:48
37Hellebuyck
60:00
Starter
34Allen
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

WPG

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
11:11
13Vilardi
20:05
55Scheifele
22:18
91Perfetti
18:38
L2
7:37
81Connor
20:44
19Mercer
18:14
61Björck
15:30
L3
4:48
9Iafallo
14:07
17Lowry
13:57
27Rosén
11:49
L4
2:26
45Koepke
9:36
36Barron
15:04
77Bauer
2:59
D1
14:00
4Pionk
23:42
54Samberg
20:40
D2
11:12
38Ferraro
18:18
2DeMelo
17:39
D3
8:19
57Salomonsson
18:39
24Fleury
15:19
74Skinner
0:00
Starter
35Daws
58:06
Backup

Injured / Scratched

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice