NJDaway
45%at
VGKhome
55%Win probability10-pt gap
Model pick
VGK · 55% to win
Key signals
Home IceMarket Consensus BlendTeam Offense (Goal Model)InjuriesTeam Defense (Goal Model)
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINALT-Mobile Arena · Oct 30
NJD rest: 0dVGK rest: 1d
New Jersey Devils at Vegas Golden Knights: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.
Game analysis
Devils beat Golden Knights 5–2
- J. Hughes scored the game-winner at 3:49 of the second.
- A back-and-forth game: the lead changed hands 2 times.
- An empty-net goal sealed it late.
- C. Hellebuyck stopped 19 of 21 shots (.905) for the win.
- The Devils controlled play, outshooting the Golden Knights 32–21.
- Model miss: the Devils won with only a 45% pre-game win probability.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starA. Gritsyuk
NJD · 2G 0A
- 2nd starJ. Hughes
NJD · 2G 0A
- 3rd starB. McNabb
VGK · 0G 1A
Scoring summary
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
NJDVGK
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 13 | 36 |
| Blocked | 5 | 15 |
| Power Play | 0/2 | 1/1 |
| Faceoff % | 47.4 | 52.6 |
| Corsi % | -- | -- |
| xG | 3.09 | 1.84 |
| Giveaways | 9 | 15 |
| Takeaways | 7 | 1 |
Vegas Golden Knights
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 17:42 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 15:20 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:34 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 1 | 16:17 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:21 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:01 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:32 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 16:57 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:22 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 24:29 | |
| -- | -- | 39/44 | -- | .886 | 58:12 | |
| -- | -- | 27/32 | -- | .844 | 00:00 |
New Jersey Devils
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 8 | 17:48 | |
| 2 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 7 | 17:19 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 0 | 15:35 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 23:39 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:45 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 13:58 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 18:12 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 16:33 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:48 | |
| -- | -- | 30/32 | -- | .938 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 19/21 | -- | .905 | 00:00 |
Projected score
NJD
3.0
–
VGK
3.2
Most likely final: VGK 3–2 NJD · Actual: 2–5
- VGK win
- 55%
- NJD win
- 45%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 24%
Likeliest scorelines
- VGK 3 – 2 NJD8%
- VGK 2 – 3 NJD8%
- VGK 4 – 3 NJD7%
- VGK 3 – 4 NJD7%
- VGK 2 – 1 NJD5%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 56%
- 7+ total goals
- 45%
- VGK by 2+
- 28%
- NJD by 2+
- 21%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to VGK.+0.16
- Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.-0.15
- Team OffenseVGK scoring +5% vs league average, NJD +0% (time-weighted goal model).+0.14
- Team DefenseVGK allowing -6% vs league average, NJD -1%.+0.12
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Carter Hart (VGK) -0.03 g/gm; Jake Allen (NJD) -0.03 g/gm.+0.01
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
NJD
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Seamus Caseyinjured-reserve · Knee
VGK
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Parker Wotherspooninjured-reserve · Upper Body
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice