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FINALUnited Center · Oct 25
FLA rest: 2dCHI rest: 0d

Florida Panthers at Chicago Blackhawks: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.

Game analysis

Panthers beat Blackhawks 3–2

  • L. Eller scored the game-winner at 17:37 of the third.
  • A. Schmid stopped 19 of 21 shots (.905) for the win.
  • The Panthers controlled play, outshooting the Blackhawks 34–21.
  • Power play: FLA 1/4, CHI 0/7.
  • HabsMetrics model had the Panthers as 54% favourites — it called this one.

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.

Three stars

  1. 1st star
    L. Eller

    FLA · 1G 0A

  2. 2nd star
    R. Kantserov

    CHI · 1G 0A

  3. 3rd star
    M. Tkachuk

    FLA · 1G 0A

Scoring summary

Period by Period

Stats not yet available

Team Stats

FLACHI
Team statistics comparison
Shots----
Hits3318
Blocked159
Power Play1/40/7
Faceoff %53.646.4
Corsi %50.050.0
xG3.673.34
Giveaways1519
Takeaways31

Chicago Blackhawks

Player statistics for Chicago Blackhawks
PlayerGAP+/-SOGTOI
1010314:40
011+1008:46
1010221:12
0110220:21
0110223:09
011+2012:41
0000013:30
0000018:57
0000112:36
000-1216:47
----44/47--.93657:38
----31/34--.91200:00

Florida Panthers

Player statistics for Florida Panthers
PlayerGAP+/-SOGTOI
011-1114:48
011+1220:06
101-1318:27
101+1216:20
011+2416:39
101+1413:04
011+1424:55
0110122:31
000-1008:57
000-1319:16
----42/44--.95559:55
----19/21--.90500:00
FLAaway
54%
at
CHIhome
46%
Win probability8-pt gap
Model pick
FLA · 54% to win

What’s driving it

3 of the top factors favour FLA
← FLACHI →
  • Team Defense (Goal Model)FLACHI allowing +12% vs league average, FLA +1%.
  • Team Offense (Goal Model)FLACHI scoring -12% vs league average, FLA -5% (time-weighted goal model).
  • InjuriesCHICHI without Bowen Byram; FLA without Gustav Forsling, Brad Marchand, Jonah Gadjovich.
  • Home IceCHILeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to CHI.
  • Projected GoaltendingFLAProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Spencer Knight (CHI) -0.03 g/gm; Jacob Markstrom (FLA) -0.00 g/gm.

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

Projected score

FLA
3.1
–
CHI
2.8

Most likely final: CHI 2–3 FLA · Actual: 2–3

CHI win
46%
FLA win
54%
Goes to OT/SO
25%

Likeliest scorelines

  1. CHI 2 – 3 FLA9%
  2. CHI 3 – 2 FLA8%
  3. CHI 3 – 4 FLA7%
  4. CHI 4 – 3 FLA6%
  5. CHI 1 – 2 FLA6%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals
50%
7+ total goals
40%
CHI by 2+
20%
FLA by 2+
27%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

  • Team DefenseCHI allowing +12% vs league average, FLA +1%.-0.30
  • Team OffenseCHI scoring -12% vs league average, FLA -5% (time-weighted goal model).-0.24
  • InjuriesCHI without Bowen Byram; FLA without Gustav Forsling, Brad Marchand, Jonah Gadjovich.+0.16
  • Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to CHI.+0.14
  • Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Spencer Knight (CHI) -0.03 g/gm; Jacob Markstrom (FLA) -0.00 g/gm.-0.03

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Lineups

FLA

Actual (from shift data)
L1
11:20
18:27
19:16
14:48
L2
10:52
13:04
20:06
16:39
L3
7:51
16:03
16:20
L4
3:37
4:53
8:57
4:27
D1
13:11
24:55
21:32
D2
10:58
23:12
22:31
D3
9:38
12:30
11:51
59:55
Starter
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

CHI

Actual (from shift data)
L1
17:00
20:21
23:09
21:12
L2
8:55
22:22
16:47
13:30
L3
6:22
15:31
18:57
12:36
L4
5:18
14:40
9:46
D1
9:32
20:18
15:36
D2
11:16
17:33
15:25
D3
10:51
15:07
12:41
57:38
Starter
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice