UTAaway
45%at
VGKhome
55%Win probability10-pt gap
Model pick
VGK · 55% to win
Key signals
score_goals_modelTeam Defense (Goal Model)InjuriesHome IceTeam Offense (Goal Model)
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
← Back to Dashboard
SCHEDULEDT-Mobile Arena · Nov 12
UTA rest: 3dVGK rest: 3d
Projected score
UTA
2.9
–
VGK
3.2
Most likely final: VGK 3–2 UTA
- VGK win
- 55%
- UTA win
- 45%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 24%
Likeliest scorelines
- VGK 3 – 2 UTA8%
- VGK 2 – 3 UTA8%
- VGK 4 – 3 UTA7%
- VGK 3 – 4 UTA6%
- VGK 2 – 1 UTA5%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 54%
- 7+ total goals
- 44%
- VGK by 2+
- 28%
- UTA by 2+
- 21%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Recent Form & Shot MetricsGoals model on recent results, rest, shots, special teams and shot-attempt share: VGK 3.01 vs UTA 3.05 expected goals before goalie, injury and market adjustments.-0.44
- Team DefenseVGK allowing -8% vs league average, UTA +5%.+0.37
- InjuriesUTA without Kailer Yamamoto, Nate Schmidt, John Marino.+0.21
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to VGK.+0.19
- Team OffenseVGK scoring +1% vs league average, UTA +7% (time-weighted goal model).-0.16
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Carter Hart (VGK) +0.00 g/gm; Karel Vejmelka (UTA) -0.10 g/gm.+0.10
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
UTA
ProjectedLines from last completed game, minus injured players.
Injured / Scratched
- Kailer Yamamotoother · Upper Body
- Maveric Lamoureuxinjured-reserve · Shoulder
- John Marinoinjured-reserve · Upper Body
VGK
ProjectedLines from last completed game, minus injured players.
Injured / Scratched
- Parker Wotherspooninjured-reserve · Upper Body
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice