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SCHEDULEDLenovo Center · Nov 8
CHICHI
—@—
CARCAR
CHI rest: 1dCAR rest: 1d
CHIaway
21%
at
CARhome
79%
Win probability58-pt gap
Model pick
CAR · 79% to win

Key signals

Team Offense (Goal Model)Team Defense (Goal Model)Home IceProjected GoaltendingInjuries

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

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Carolina Clearly Ahead of Chicago at Lenovo Center

The PuckMetrics model has the Carolina Hurricanes as the clear favourite, with a 79% win probability against the Chicago Blackhawks' 21%. That is a wide gap, and the model's confidence in its pick is high.

The most likely final score is Carolina 3, Chicago 2. The model also gives the game an 18% chance of going to overtime, so a tight finish is a real possibility even with Carolina favoured this clearly.

Carolina is the side the numbers back at home in Lenovo Center. Chicago can still make it a game, but the projection leans firmly toward the Hurricanes.

Model check: Carolina Hurricanes 79%, Chicago Blackhawks 21% at Lenovo Center. Most likely score 3-2 Carolina, with an 18% chance of overtime. Analytics only, not betting advice. #Canes #NHL

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For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Projected score

CHI
2.1
–
CAR
4.0

Most likely final: CAR 3–2 CHI

CAR win
79%
CHI win
21%
Goes to OT/SO
18%

Likeliest scorelines

  1. CAR 3 – 2 CHI8%
  2. CAR 4 – 3 CHI6%
  3. CAR 2 – 1 CHI5%
  4. CAR 4 – 2 CHI5%
  5. CAR 4 – 1 CHI5%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals
56%
7+ total goals
44%
CAR by 2+
54%
CHI by 2+
7%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

  • Team OffenseCAR scoring +13% vs league average, CHI -15% (time-weighted goal model).+0.85
  • Team DefenseCAR allowing -13% vs league average, CHI +13%.+0.76
  • Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to CAR.+0.18
  • Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Pyotr Kochetkov (CAR) +0.06 g/gm; Spencer Knight (CHI) -0.04 g/gm.+0.09
  • InjuriesCHI without Patrick Kane, Bowen Byram.+0.06
  • Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.+0.02

PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Lineups

CHI

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
13:50
59Bertuzzi
16:56
98Bedard
18:05
80Kantserov
17:31
L2
10:16
26Mangiapane
12:39
16Frondell
17:58
86Teravainen
13:20
L3
10:48
8Donato
14:13
91Nazar
15:47
11Moore
13:53
L4
7:15
36Boucher
8:12
20Greene
12:56
22Smith
12:47
D1
9:52
72Vlasic
24:56
28Cole
19:22
D2
8:27
55Levshunov
20:45
44Kaiser
19:55
D3
7:35
6Rinzel
20:50
38Del Mastro
14:06
30Knight
0:00
Starter
40Soderblom
60:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

CAR

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
11:57
28Carrier
13:53
20Aho
22:09
37Svechnikov
18:11
L2
11:11
27Ehlers
15:46
22Stankoven
14:13
53Blake
16:26
L3
7:19
71Hall
10:30
77Jankowski
13:20
24Jarvis
15:05
L4
6:01
48Martinook
15:06
82Kotkaniemi
8:53
50Robinson
10:20
D1
18:22
74Slavin
25:52
5Chatfield
22:57
D2
14:10
26Walker
20:24
19Miller
19:18
D3
10:50
4Gostisbehere
16:53
8Valimaki
12:44
52Kochetkov
0:00
Starter
32Bussi
60:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice