CARaway
62%at
NYIhome
38%Win probability24-pt gap
Model pick
CAR · 62% to win
Key signals
Team Offense (Goal Model)Team Defense (Goal Model)Home IceInjuriesMarket Consensus Blend
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINALUBS Arena · Nov 6
CAR rest: 1dNYI rest: 5d
Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.
Game analysis
Hurricanes beat Islanders 5–3
- W. Carrier scored the game-winner at 14:52 of the third.
- An empty-net goal sealed it late.
- B. Bussi stopped 24 of 27 shots (.889) for the win.
- The Hurricanes controlled play, outshooting the Islanders 39–27.
- The Islanders dominated the dot, winning 66% of faceoffs.
- HabsMetrics model had the Hurricanes as 62% favourites — it called this one.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starW. Carrier
CAR · 1G 1A
- 2nd starA. Svechnikov
CAR · 1G 1A
- 3rd starB. Schenn
NYI · 1G 1A
Scoring summary
1st
- 0:57CARL. StankovenVideoAssists: J. Blake, K. Miller1–0
- 3:20CARJ. KotkaniemiVideoAssists: J. Martinook, J. Chatfield2–0
2nd
- 3:40NYIM. ChaffeeVideoAssists: M. Schaefer, C. Cizikas2–1
- 5:44NYIB. SchennVideoAssists: V. Eklund, M. Kessel2–2
- 6:44CARA. SvechnikovVideoAssists: S. Aho, W. Carrier3–2
- 17:13NYIV. EklundVideoAssists: B. Schenn, E. Heineman3–3
3rd
- 14:52CARW. CarrierVideoAssists: A. Svechnikov, S. Aho4–3
- 19:09CARJ. ChatfieldENVideo5–3
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
CARNYI
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 16 | 26 |
| Blocked | 22 | 13 |
| Power Play | 0/2 | 0/4 |
| Faceoff % | 34.4 | 65.6 |
| Corsi % | 50.4 | 49.6 |
| xG | 3.62 | 3.70 |
| Giveaways | 23 | 19 |
| Takeaways | 8 | 5 |
New York Islanders
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 15:16 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 1 | 18:17 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 1 | 15:30 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 10:04 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:13 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 30:01 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 10:31 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 13:41 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 3 | 20:56 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 19:03 | |
| -- | -- | 45/50 | -- | .900 | 58:29 | |
| -- | -- | 34/39 | -- | .872 | 00:00 |
Carolina Hurricanes
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 4 | 22:09 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 13:53 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 7 | 18:11 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 22:57 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 14:13 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:06 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:26 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 08:53 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 19:18 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 15:46 | |
| -- | -- | 37/40 | -- | .925 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 24/27 | -- | .889 | 00:00 |
Projected score
CAR
3.1
–
NYI
2.4
Most likely final: NYI 2–3 CAR · Actual: 3–5
- NYI win
- 38%
- CAR win
- 62%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 25%
Likeliest scorelines
- NYI 2 – 3 CAR10%
- NYI 3 – 2 CAR8%
- NYI 1 – 2 CAR8%
- NYI 2 – 1 CAR6%
- NYI 3 – 4 CAR6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 42%
- 7+ total goals
- 32%
- NYI by 2+
- 15%
- CAR by 2+
- 33%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team OffenseNYI scoring -7% vs league average, CAR +11% (time-weighted goal model).-0.54
- Team DefenseNYI allowing -6% vs league average, CAR -13%.-0.24
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to NYI.+0.18
- InjuriesNYI without Ryan Pulock, Mathew Barzal, Matias Maccelli; CAR without Taylor Hall, Alexander Nikishin.-0.11
- Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.-0.04
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Ilya Sorokin (NYI) +0.04 g/gm; Pyotr Kochetkov (CAR) +0.06 g/gm.-0.02
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
CAR
Actual (from shift data)L1
11:57
L4
6:01
D3
10:50
16:53
12:44
Injured / Scratched
- Alexander Nikishinother · Not Injury Related
- Jordan Staalinjured-reserve · Calf
NYI
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Ryan Pulockother · Upper Body
- Mathew Barzalinjured-reserve · Knee
- Matias Maccelliinjured-reserve · Left Lower Body
- Calum Ritchieinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Alexander Romanovinjured-reserve · Right Knee (Surgery)
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice