DETaway
44%at
STLhome
56%Win probability12-pt gap
Model pick
STL · 56% to win
Key signals
Recent Form & Shot MetricsHome IceProjected GoaltendingTeam Offense (Goal Model)Injuries
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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SCHEDULEDEnterprise Center · Nov 11
DET rest: 2dSTL rest: 3d
Detroit Red Wings at St. Louis Blues: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.
Projected score
DET
2.8
–
STL
3.1
Most likely final: STL 3–2 DET
- STL win
- 56%
- DET win
- 44%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 24%
Likeliest scorelines
- STL 3 – 2 DET9%
- STL 2 – 3 DET8%
- STL 4 – 3 DET7%
- STL 3 – 4 DET6%
- STL 2 – 1 DET6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 51%
- 7+ total goals
- 41%
- STL by 2+
- 28%
- DET by 2+
- 20%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Recent Form & Shot MetricsGoals model on recent results, rest, shots, special teams and shot-attempt share: STL 2.99 vs DET 2.95 expected goals before goalie, injury and market adjustments.-0.33
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +7% applied to STL.+0.20
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Joel Hofer (STL) +0.07 g/gm; John Gibson (DET) -0.11 g/gm.+0.18
- Team OffenseSTL scoring -1% vs league average, DET -6% (time-weighted goal model).+0.17
- InjuriesSTL without Logan Mailloux, Tyler Tucker; DET without Dylan Larkin, Simon Edvinsson, Albert Johansson.+0.11
- Team DefenseSTL allowing -2% vs league average, DET -1%.+0.02
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
DET
ProjectedLines from last completed game, minus injured players.
L2
11:53
Injured / Scratched
- Dylan Larkininjured-reserve · Suspension
- Simon Edvinssoninjured-reserve · Contract Dispute
- Albert Johanssonother · Undisclosed
- Marco Kasperinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Mason Appletoninjured-reserve · Undisclosed
STL
ProjectedLines from last completed game, minus injured players.
L1
13:14
L2
9:34
L4
9:45
30Hofer
60:00
0:00
Injured / Scratched
- Torey Kruglong-term-injured-reserve · Left Ankle
- Colton Paraykoother · Upper Body
- Logan Maillouxinjured-reserve · Hand (Surgery)
- Ross Johnstoninjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Dillon Dubeinjured-reserve · Neck
- Tyler Tuckerinjured-reserve · Left Knee (Surgery)
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice