Progression & regression
Who’s Due to Cool Off or Heat Up
Which NHL skaters are scoring above or below what their shots support. Each skater’s goal pace is set against the pace his expected goals (ixG) and finishing record support; a big gap usually closes. Skaters with 15+ games and 30+ shots, updated every morning. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.
Updated Nov 8, 2026 · Skaters with at least 15 games and 30 unblocked shots.
Due to regress
Scoring well above what their shots support. Finishing luck like this rarely lasts.
- Artturi LehkonenCOL · LW0.61 → 0.28 (+0.33)
- Evan BouchardEDM · D0.44 → 0.17 (+0.27)
- Matvei MichkovPHI · RW0.44 → 0.21 (+0.23)
- Brady TkachukFLA · LW0.53 → 0.30 (+0.23)
- Martin NecasCOL · C0.50 → 0.28 (+0.22)
- Vasily PodkolzinEDM · RW0.50 → 0.28 (+0.22)
- Kyle ConnorWPG · LW0.59 → 0.38 (+0.20)
- Tim StützleOTT · C0.39 → 0.19 (+0.20)
goals per game
Due to progress
Scoring well below what their shots support. The goals tend to come.
- Wyatt JohnstonDAL · C0.07 → 0.34 (−0.27)
- Lucas RaymondDET · LW0.17 → 0.43 (−0.26)
- Gabriel VilardiWPG · C0.00 → 0.24 (−0.24)
- Alex OvechkinWSH · LW0.07 → 0.30 (−0.24)
- Zach BensonBUF · LW0.13 → 0.35 (−0.23)
- Timo MeierNJD · RW0.06 → 0.28 (−0.23)
- Amadeus LombardiNJD · C0.00 → 0.17 (−0.17)
- Tyson FoersterPHI · RW0.12 → 0.28 (−0.16)
goals per game
Biggest gaps
| Player | GP | G | ixG | Goal pace | Supported pace | Gap | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artturi LehkonenCOLDue to regress | 18 | 11 | 5.1 | 0.61 | 0.28 | +0.33 | 1088 |
| Evan BouchardEDMDue to regress | 18 | 8 | 2.8 | 0.44 | 0.17 | +0.27 | 1117 |
| Wyatt JohnstonDALDue to progress | 15 | 1 | 4.6 | 0.07 | 0.34 | −0.27 | 1017 |
| Lucas RaymondDETDue to progress | 18 | 3 | 7.5 | 0.17 | 0.43 | −0.26 | 985 |
| Gabriel VilardiWPGDue to progress | 17 | 0 | 3.4 | 0.00 | 0.24 | −0.24 | 970 |
| Alex OvechkinWSHDue to progress | 15 | 1 | 3.8 | 0.07 | 0.30 | −0.24 | 1042 |
| Matvei MichkovPHIDue to regress | 18 | 8 | 3.5 | 0.44 | 0.21 | +0.23 | 975 |
| Brady TkachukFLADue to regress | 17 | 9 | 6.8 | 0.53 | 0.30 | +0.23 | 949 |
| Zach BensonBUFDue to progress | 16 | 2 | 6.7 | 0.13 | 0.35 | −0.23 | 1081 |
| Timo MeierNJDDue to progress | 17 | 1 | 5.3 | 0.06 | 0.28 | −0.23 | 959 |
| Martin NecasCOLDue to regress | 18 | 9 | 4.2 | 0.50 | 0.28 | +0.22 | 1055 |
| Vasily PodkolzinEDMDue to regress | 18 | 9 | 4.9 | 0.50 | 0.28 | +0.22 | 1069 |
| Kyle ConnorWPGDue to regress | 17 | 10 | 5.4 | 0.59 | 0.38 | +0.20 | 990 |
| Tim StützleOTTDue to regress | 18 | 7 | 3.1 | 0.39 | 0.19 | +0.20 | 1070 |
| Nathan MacKinnonCOLDue to regress | 18 | 10 | 6.1 | 0.56 | 0.36 | +0.19 | 1054 |
| Kent JohnsonCBJDue to regress | 15 | 6 | 2.6 | 0.40 | 0.21 | +0.19 | 1010 |
| Logan StankovenCARDue to regress | 19 | 8 | 5.0 | 0.42 | 0.24 | +0.18 | 1051 |
| Carter VerhaegheFLADue to regress | 17 | 8 | 4.4 | 0.47 | 0.29 | +0.18 | 1056 |
| Mark JankowskiCARDue to regress | 15 | 7 | 4.1 | 0.47 | 0.29 | +0.18 | 948 |
| Josh AndersonMTLDue to regress | 16 | 6 | 3.3 | 0.38 | 0.20 | +0.17 | 1077 |
| Nick RobertsonPITDue to regress | 17 | 6 | 2.7 | 0.35 | 0.18 | +0.17 | 1052 |
| Boone JennerWSHDue to regress | 15 | 5 | 2.9 | 0.33 | 0.16 | +0.17 | 1014 |
| Mikko RantanenDALDue to regress | 17 | 7 | 3.3 | 0.41 | 0.24 | +0.17 | 1048 |
| Drake BathersonOTTDue to regress | 18 | 7 | 3.6 | 0.39 | 0.22 | +0.17 | 1094 |
| Evgeni MalkinPITDue to regress | 15 | 6 | 3.2 | 0.40 | 0.23 | +0.17 | 1003 |
| Amadeus LombardiNJDDue to progress | 15 | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00 | 0.17 | −0.17 | 963 |
| Tyson FoersterPHIDue to progress | 17 | 2 | 4.0 | 0.12 | 0.28 | −0.16 | 994 |
| Nikita KucherovTBLDue to progress | 16 | 4 | 5.6 | 0.25 | 0.41 | −0.16 | 1039 |
| Tom WilsonWSHDue to progress | 15 | 2 | 4.0 | 0.13 | 0.29 | −0.16 | 1038 |
| Mikhail SergachevUTADue to regress | 18 | 5 | 2.1 | 0.28 | 0.12 | +0.16 | 971 |
| Danila YurovMINDue to regress | 19 | 6 | 3.0 | 0.32 | 0.17 | +0.15 | 995 |
| Alex TuchWSHDue to regress | 15 | 10 | 7.1 | 0.67 | 0.52 | +0.15 | 986 |
| Kyle PalmieriNYIDue to progress | 16 | 2 | 4.7 | 0.13 | 0.27 | −0.15 | 994 |
| Mark ScheifeleWPGDue to progress | 17 | 1 | 2.9 | 0.06 | 0.20 | −0.15 | 1019 |
| Mitch MarnerVGKDue to progress | 16 | 2 | 3.8 | 0.13 | 0.27 | −0.14 | 979 |
| Artemi PanarinLAKDue to regress | 15 | 6 | 3.0 | 0.40 | 0.26 | +0.14 | 998 |
| Andrei SvechnikovCARDue to regress | 19 | 9 | 6.7 | 0.47 | 0.33 | +0.14 | 1038 |
| Brayden PointTBLDue to progress | 16 | 5 | 6.5 | 0.31 | 0.45 | −0.14 | 1073 |
| Joel Eriksson EkMINDue to progress | 19 | 5 | 8.2 | 0.26 | 0.40 | −0.14 | 1110 |
| Dylan StromeWSHDue to progress | 15 | 3 | 4.4 | 0.20 | 0.34 | −0.14 | 1009 |
| Cutter GauthierANADue to regress | 16 | 8 | 5.2 | 0.50 | 0.36 | +0.14 | 979 |
| Kiefer SherwoodSJSDue to progress | 19 | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00 | 0.13 | −0.13 | 961 |
| Leon DraisaitlEDMDue to regress | 18 | 14 | 7.9 | 0.78 | 0.65 | +0.13 | 1067 |
| John CarlsonTBLDue to regress | 16 | 4 | 2.2 | 0.25 | 0.12 | +0.13 | 1018 |
| T.J. HughesCOLDue to progress | 18 | 2 | 4.6 | 0.11 | 0.24 | −0.13 | 1047 |
| Sebastian AhoCARDue to regress | 19 | 9 | 6.0 | 0.47 | 0.35 | +0.13 | 1029 |
| Alex NewhookMTLDue to regress | 17 | 5 | 2.6 | 0.29 | 0.17 | +0.13 | 1053 |
| Juraj SlafkovskýMTLDue to progress | 17 | 2 | 4.4 | 0.12 | 0.24 | −0.13 | 1015 |
| Mark StoneVGKDue to regress | 18 | 8 | 5.3 | 0.44 | 0.32 | +0.13 | 1041 |
| Tye KartyeNYRDue to regress | 18 | 5 | 2.5 | 0.28 | 0.15 | +0.12 | 1023 |
How this works
A shot’s expected goals (xG) is the chance it becomes a goal, from its distance, angle, type and situation; a skater’s ixG is the sum over his own shots. Shot quality repeats from one season to the next, but scoring above or below xG mostly doesn’t: only about a fifth of it carries over. So the supported pace is his xG pace plus a small, shrunk share of his finishing record, this season and career. Tested on three past seasons, it predicted the rest-of-season goal rate better than the goal pace players were on, every time. PDO (on-ice shooting % + save %, about 1000 on average) is shown as extra context for on-ice luck.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only, not gambling advice.