MTLaway
41%at
BOShome
59%Win probability18-pt gap
Model pick
BOS · 59% to win
Key signals
Team Defense (Goal Model)Home IceTeam Offense (Goal Model)InjuriesProjected Goaltending
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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SCHEDULEDTD Garden · Nov 13
MTL rest: 1dBOS rest: 4d
Projected score
MTL
2.6
–
BOS
3.1
Most likely final: BOS 3–2 MTL
- BOS win
- 59%
- MTL win
- 41%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 24%
Likeliest scorelines
- BOS 3 – 2 MTL9%
- BOS 2 – 3 MTL8%
- BOS 4 – 3 MTL7%
- BOS 2 – 1 MTL6%
- BOS 3 – 4 MTL6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 49%
- 7+ total goals
- 39%
- BOS by 2+
- 31%
- MTL by 2+
- 18%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team DefenseBOS allowing -10% vs league average, MTL -3%.+0.21
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to BOS.+0.17
- Team OffenseBOS scoring +7% vs league average, MTL +3% (time-weighted goal model).+0.12
- InjuriesBOS without Matthew Poitras, James Hagens; MTL without Josh Anderson, Mike Matheson, Ivan Demidov.+0.07
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Jeremy Swayman (BOS) +0.04 g/gm; Jacob Fowler (MTL) +0.08 g/gm.-0.03
PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
MTL
ProjectedLines from last completed game, minus injured players.
L1
11:45
Injured / Scratched
- Bryce Pickfordinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Lucas Condottainjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Nick Suzukiother · Upper Body
- Sam Montembeaultinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Ivan Demidovinjured-reserve · Lower Body
BOS
ProjectedLines from last completed game, minus injured players.
L2
9:02
L3
8:42
Injured / Scratched
None reported
PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice