COLaway
67%at
CHIhome
33%Win probability34-pt gap
Model pick
COL · 67% to win
Key signals
Team Offense (Goal Model)Team Defense (Goal Model)Home IceInjuriesMarket Consensus Blend
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
← Back to Dashboard
FINALUnited Center · Nov 3
COL rest: 1dCHI rest: 2d
Game analysis
Avalanche beat Blackhawks 5–2
- N. Kadri scored the game-winner on the power play at 13:38 of the second.
- The Avalanche came back from a 2-goal deficit.
- An empty-net goal sealed it late.
- M. Blackwood stopped 21 of 23 shots (.913) for the win.
- Power play: COL 1/5, CHI 0/4.
- HabsMetrics model had the Avalanche as 67% favourites — it called this one.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starN. Kadri
COL · 2G 0A
- 2nd starJ. Schwartz
COL · 2G 0A
- 3rd starT. Hughes
COL · 0G 2A
Scoring summary
1st
- 0:57CHIW. KaiserAssists: R. Donato0–1
- 7:05CHIR. KantserovAssists: C. Bedard0–2
- 15:23COLN. KadriAssists: G. Landeskog, B. Burns1–2
- 15:49COLJ. SchwartzAssists: T. Hughes, D. Toews2–2
2nd
- 13:38COLN. KadriPPAssists: C. Makar, N. MacKinnon3–2
- 19:49COLJ. SchwartzAssists: S. Malinski, T. Hughes4–2
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
COLCHI
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 12 | 16 |
| Blocked | 15 | 11 |
| Power Play | 1/5 | 0/4 |
| Faceoff % | 56.3 | 43.8 |
| Corsi % | -- | -- |
| xG | 2.99 | 2.40 |
| Giveaways | 24 | 12 |
| Takeaways | 6 | 4 |
Chicago Blackhawks
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:36 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16:31 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19:12 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 21:19 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14:53 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 17:33 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 18:40 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 12:24 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10:18 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:19 | |
| -- | -- | 42/47 | -- | .894 | 58:54 | |
| -- | -- | 24/29 | -- | .828 | 00:00 |
Colorado Avalanche
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 17:10 | |
| 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 15:26 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 20:46 | |
| 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15:51 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:25 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:03 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 23:00 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 15:46 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 18:05 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 08:38 | |
| -- | -- | 40/42 | -- | .952 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 21/23 | -- | .913 | 00:00 |
Projected score
COL
3.8
–
CHI
2.7
Most likely final: CHI 2–3 COL · Actual: 2–5
- CHI win
- 33%
- COL win
- 67%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 21%
Likeliest scorelines
- CHI 2 – 3 COL8%
- CHI 3 – 4 COL7%
- CHI 3 – 2 COL6%
- CHI 4 – 3 COL6%
- CHI 2 – 4 COL5%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 62%
- 7+ total goals
- 51%
- CHI by 2+
- 13%
- COL by 2+
- 41%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team OffenseCHI scoring -14% vs league average, COL +18% (time-weighted goal model).-0.91
- Team DefenseCHI allowing +10% vs league average, COL -2%.-0.34
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to CHI.+0.17
- InjuriesCHI without Bowen Byram; COL without Josh Manson.+0.03
- Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.-0.01
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Spencer Knight (CHI) -0.01 g/gm; Mackenzie Blackwood (COL) -0.01 g/gm.-0.00
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
COL
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Josh Mansonother · Left Ankle
- Zachary L'Heureuxlong-term-injured-reserve · Upper Body
CHI
Actual (from shift data)L3
4:21
L4
D3
6:34
16:32
12:08
Injured / Scratched
- Bowen Byramother · Upper Body
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice