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FINALRogers Arena · Oct 26
MIN rest: 0dVAN rest: 2d

Game analysis

Wild beat Canucks 4–2

  • Q. Hughes scored the game-winner on the power play at 12:55 of the second.
  • The Wild scored first and led the rest of the way.
  • C. Pickard stopped 15 of 17 shots (.882) for the win.
  • The Wild controlled play, outshooting the Canucks 34–17.
  • Power play: MIN 2/5, VAN 0/1.
  • HabsMetrics model had the Wild as 65% favourites — it called this one.

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.

Three stars

  1. 1st star
    Q. Hughes

    MIN · 1G 1A

  2. 2nd star
    K. Kaprizov

    MIN · 1G 1A

  3. 3rd star
    M. Sasson

    VAN · 1G 0A

Scoring summary

1st

2nd

3rd

Period by Period

Stats not yet available

Team Stats

MINVAN
Team statistics comparison
Shots----
Hits3220
Blocked1011
Power Play2/50/1
Faceoff %48.951.1
Corsi %----
xG5.501.63
Giveaways1421
Takeaways56

Vancouver Canucks

Player statistics for Vancouver Canucks
PlayerGAP+/-SOGTOI
0110014:10
1010118:39
0110119:40
101+1111:13
011+2125:39
011+1122:35
0000016:28
000+1111:10
000-1317:19
000-1112:01
----46/50--.92057:06
----30/34--.88200:00

Minnesota Wild

Player statistics for Minnesota Wild
PlayerGAP+/-SOGTOI
112+1326:10
112+1221:53
112-2316:04
101+1213:42
011+1514:49
011+1322:40
011+1520:10
0000018:38
000-1012:11
000-2112:31
----29/31--.93560:00
----15/17--.88200:00
MINaway
65%
at
VANhome
35%
Win probability30-pt gap
Model pick
MIN · 65% to win

Key signals

Team Defense (Goal Model)Projected GoaltendingTeam Offense (Goal Model)Rest / Back-to-BackInjuries

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

Projected score

MIN
3.7
–
VAN
2.7

Most likely final: VAN 2–3 MIN · Actual: 2–4

VAN win
35%
MIN win
65%
Goes to OT/SO
22%

Likeliest scorelines

  1. VAN 2 – 3 MIN8%
  2. VAN 3 – 4 MIN7%
  3. VAN 3 – 2 MIN6%
  4. VAN 4 – 3 MIN6%
  5. VAN 1 – 2 MIN5%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals
60%
7+ total goals
49%
VAN by 2+
14%
MIN by 2+
39%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

  • Team DefenseVAN allowing +24% vs league average, MIN -10%.-0.95
  • Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Kevin Lankinen (VAN) -0.22 g/gm; Jesper Wallstedt (MIN) +0.06 g/gm.-0.28
  • Team OffenseVAN scoring -5% vs league average, MIN +3% (time-weighted goal model).-0.25
  • RestMIN on the second night of a back-to-back.+0.19
  • InjuriesMIN without Marcus Foligno, Nick Foligno, Brock Faber.+0.18
  • Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to VAN.+0.14

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Lineups

MIN

Actual (from shift data)
L1
17:40
22:40
21:53
L2
8:53
14:22
14:49
13:42
L3
8:01
16:04
12:31
12:59
L4
7:19
8:55
12:28
12:17
D1
13:18
26:10
20:09
D2
11:38
19:03
18:38
D3
9:14
16:59
12:11
60:00
Starter
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

VAN

Actual (from shift data)
L1
7:33
16:28
19:40
18:39
L2
5:37
13:47
17:19
L3
6:38
14:10
16:01
11:10
L4
5:34
10:08
14:16
11:13
D1
12:29
25:39
22:35
D2
14:52
22:59
20:30
D3
8:16
14:03
12:35
57:06
Starter
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

  • Akil Thomasinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
  • Mackenzie MacEacherninjured-reserve · Undisclosed
  • Thatcher Demkoinjured-reserve · Hip (Surgery)

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice