CBJaway
49%at
PHIhome
51%Win probability2-pt gap
Model pick
PHI · 51% to win
Key signals
Team Defense (Goal Model)Home IceTeam Offense (Goal Model)InjuriesProjected Goaltending
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINAL / OTXfinity Mobile Arena · Oct 27
CBJ rest: 2dPHI rest: 2d
Game analysis
Blue Jackets beat Flyers 4–3 in overtime
- K. Johnson scored the game-winner at 2:22 in overtime.
- C. Talbot stopped 29 of 32 shots (.906) for the win.
- The Blue Jackets won despite being outshot 32–15.
- K. Johnson led all scorers with 2 goals and 1 assist.
- Model miss: the Blue Jackets won with only a 49% pre-game win probability.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starK. Johnson
CBJ · 2G 1A
- 2nd starC. Talbot
CBJ · .906 SV%
- 3rd starJ. Drysdale
PHI · 1G 0A
Scoring summary
1st
- 10:58CBJA. FantilliVideoAssists: K. Johnson, J. Christiansen1–0
- 12:54CBJK. JohnsonVideoAssists: Z. Werenski, V. Nichushkin2–0
- 13:44CBJD. MateychukVideoAssists: M. Olivier, M. Knies3–0
2nd
- 9:59PHIN. CatesVideoAssists: P. Martone, O. Bonk3–1
3rd
- 15:04PHIT. ZegrasVideoAssists: C. Dvorak, T. Sanheim3–2
- 19:49PHIJ. DrysdaleVideoAssists: T. Foerster, T. Zegras3–3
OT
- 2:22CBJK. JohnsonVideoAssists: A. Fantilli, Z. Werenski4–3
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
CBJPHI
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 18 | 15 |
| Blocked | 19 | 12 |
| Power Play | 0/1 | 0/2 |
| Faceoff % | 56.0 | 44.0 |
| Corsi % | 35.9 | 64.1 |
| xG | 1.55 | 3.50 |
| Giveaways | 13 | 15 |
| Takeaways | 5 | 1 |
Philadelphia Flyers
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 20:47 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 18:14 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 16:48 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24:57 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 16:48 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:23 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 14:44 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 26:48 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12:11 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21:35 | |
| -- | -- | 21/25 | -- | .840 | 61:11 | |
| -- | -- | 11/15 | -- | .733 | 00:00 |
Columbus Blue Jackets
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 2 | 14:41 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 2 | 20:45 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 1 | 28:09 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17:37 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16:50 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 16:18 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 21:19 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 16:11 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 07:44 | |
| -- | -- | 40/43 | -- | .930 | 62:22 | |
| -- | -- | 28/31 | -- | .903 | 00:00 |
Projected score
CBJ
2.6
–
PHI
2.6
Most likely final: PHI 3–2 CBJ · Actual: 3–4
- PHI win
- 51%
- CBJ win
- 49%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 27%
Likeliest scorelines
- PHI 3 – 2 CBJ10%
- PHI 2 – 3 CBJ9%
- PHI 2 – 1 CBJ8%
- PHI 1 – 2 CBJ8%
- PHI 4 – 3 CBJ6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 39%
- 7+ total goals
- 29%
- PHI by 2+
- 23%
- CBJ by 2+
- 22%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team DefensePHI allowing -5% vs league average, CBJ +1%.+0.18
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to PHI.+0.16
- Team OffensePHI scoring -15% vs league average, CBJ -10% (time-weighted goal model).-0.15
- InjuriesPHI without Rasmus Ristolainen, Owen Tippett, Travis Konecny.-0.15
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Joseph Woll (PHI) +0.01 g/gm; Jet Greaves (CBJ) -0.03 g/gm.+0.04
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
CBJ
Actual (from shift data)L2
7:17
L4
6:45
D2
12:49
21:19
14:51
D3
11:59
17:30
15Fabbro
14:51
Injured / Scratched
None reported
PHI
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Owen Tippettinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Travis Konecnyinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Nikita Grebenkininjured-reserve · Back
- Rasmus Ristolaineninjured-reserve · Hand
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice