NYIaway
49%at
SJShome
51%Win probability2-pt gap
Model pick
SJS · 51% to win
Key signals
Team Defense (Goal Model)score_goals_modelTeam Offense (Goal Model)Home IceInjuries
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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SCHEDULEDSAP Center at San Jose · Nov 10
NYI rest: 1dSJS rest: 1d
Projected score
NYI
3.0
–
SJS
3.0
Most likely final: SJS 3–2 NYI
- SJS win
- 51%
- NYI win
- 49%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 24%
Likeliest scorelines
- SJS 3 – 2 NYI9%
- SJS 2 – 3 NYI8%
- SJS 4 – 3 NYI7%
- SJS 3 – 4 NYI7%
- SJS 2 – 1 NYI6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 52%
- 7+ total goals
- 42%
- SJS by 2+
- 25%
- NYI by 2+
- 23%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team DefenseSJS allowing +10% vs league average, NYI -4%.-0.39
- Recent Form & Shot MetricsGoals model on recent results, rest, shots, special teams and shot-attempt share: SJS 3.04 vs NYI 3.05 expected goals before goalie, injury and market adjustments.+0.37
- Team OffenseSJS scoring -13% vs league average, NYI -7% (time-weighted goal model).-0.19
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to SJS.+0.19
- InjuriesSJS without Igor Chernyshov, Alexander Wennberg; NYI without Ryan Pulock, Mathew Barzal, Matias Maccelli.+0.16
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Yaroslav Askarov (SJS) -0.06 g/gm; Ilya Sorokin (NYI) +0.04 g/gm.-0.09
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
NYI
ProjectedLines from last completed game, minus injured players.
Injured / Scratched
- Ryan Pulockday-to-day · Upper Body
- Mathew Barzalinjured-reserve · Knee
- Matias Maccelliinjured-reserve · Left Lower Body
- Calum Ritchieinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Alexander Romanovinjured-reserve · Right Knee (Surgery)
SJS
ProjectedLines from last completed game, minus injured players.
L4
6:09
30Askarov
59:37
0:00
Injured / Scratched
- Igor Chernyshovinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Alexander Wennberginjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Quentin Mustyinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Kyle Keyserinjured-reserve · Upper Body
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice