FLAaway
48%at
WPGhome
52%Win probability4-pt gap
Model pick
WPG · 52% to win
Key signals
Market Consensus BlendTeam Defense (Goal Model)Home IceTeam Offense (Goal Model)Injuries
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
← Back to Dashboard
FINALCanada Life Centre · Oct 28
FLA rest: 2dWPG rest: 2d
Florida Panthers at Winnipeg Jets: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.
Game analysis
Panthers beat Jets 5–1
- N. Mikkola scored the game-winner at 8:42 of the first.
- The Panthers scored first and led the rest of the way.
- A. Schmid stopped 24 of 25 shots (.960) for the win.
- Power play: FLA 3/5, WPG 0/2.
- M. Tkachuk led all scorers with 0 goals and 4 assists.
- Model miss: the Panthers won with only a 48% pre-game win probability.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starB. Tkachuk
FLA · 1G 2A
- 2nd starC. Verhaeghe
FLA · 2G 0A
- 3rd starM. Tkachuk
FLA · 0G 4A
Scoring summary
1st
- 7:27FLAC. VerhaeghePPVideoAssists: B. Tkachuk, S. Jones1–0
- 8:42FLAN. MikkolaVideoAssists: S. Jones, M. Tkachuk2–0
- 10:18FLAC. VerhaeghePPVideoAssists: M. Tkachuk, S. Jones3–0
2nd
- 12:27WPGA. LowrySHVideo3–1
- 13:14FLAS. ReinhartPPVideoAssists: B. Tkachuk, M. Tkachuk4–1
3rd
- 12:10FLAB. TkachukVideoAssists: M. Tkachuk, N. Mikkola5–1
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
FLAWPG
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 28 | 23 |
| Blocked | 10 | 9 |
| Power Play | 3/5 | 0/2 |
| Faceoff % | 57.1 | 42.9 |
| Corsi % | 49.0 | 51.0 |
| xG | 3.25 | 2.82 |
| Giveaways | 14 | 14 |
| Takeaways | 3 | 7 |
Winnipeg Jets
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 13:49 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:59 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 11:50 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14:33 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:18 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 20:11 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:04 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:20 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:22 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 21:28 | |
| -- | -- | 35/40 | -- | .875 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 19/24 | -- | .792 | 00:00 |
Florida Panthers
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | +1 | 1 | 16:45 | |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 1 | 16:17 | |
| 0 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 3 | 25:02 | |
| 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 | 18:26 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 19:16 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:34 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:49 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:15 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16:08 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11:18 | |
| -- | -- | 40/41 | -- | .976 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 24/25 | -- | .960 | 00:00 |
Projected score
FLA
2.6
–
WPG
2.7
Most likely final: WPG 3–2 FLA · Actual: 1–5
- WPG win
- 52%
- FLA win
- 48%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 26%
Likeliest scorelines
- WPG 3 – 2 FLA9%
- WPG 2 – 3 FLA9%
- WPG 2 – 1 FLA8%
- WPG 1 – 2 FLA7%
- WPG 4 – 3 FLA6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 42%
- 7+ total goals
- 32%
- WPG by 2+
- 24%
- FLA by 2+
- 22%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.-0.19
- Team DefenseWPG allowing -6% vs league average, FLA +0%.+0.18
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to WPG.+0.16
- Team OffenseWPG scoring -8% vs league average, FLA -5% (time-weighted goal model).-0.10
- InjuriesWPG without Vladislav Namestnikov, Josh Morrissey; FLA without Brad Marchand, Jonah Gadjovich.+0.04
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Stuart Skinner (WPG) +0.03 g/gm; Jacob Markstrom (FLA) -0.00 g/gm.+0.03
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
FLA
Actual (from shift data)L2
11:21
Injured / Scratched
- Brad Marchandinjured-reserve · Left Leg
- Jacob Markstrominjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Aleksander Barkovlong-term-injured-reserve · Left Lower Body
- Jonah Gadjovichlong-term-injured-reserve · Upper Body (Surgery)
WPG
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Nick Bjugstadlong-term-injured-reserve · Left Pectoral (Surgery)
- Garrett Browninjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Vladislav Namestnikovinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Josh Morrisseyinjured-reserve · Right Wrist
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice