Ducks vs. Penguins: Anaheim Edges a Close One in the Model

SCHEDULEDHonda Center · Nov 9

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PIT rest: 0dANA rest: 1d

Pittsburgh Penguins at Anaheim Ducks: score, goals, shots, period-by-period stats and the HabsMetrics prediction made before puck drop, from the NHL’s official data. Analytics for educational purposes only — not gambling advice.

PITaway

48%

ANAhome

52%

Win probability4-pt gap

Model pick

ANA · 52% to win

Key signals

Rest / Back-to-BackHome IceRecent Form & Shot MetricsTeam Offense (Goal Model)Team Defense (Goal Model)

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

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Ducks vs. Penguins: Anaheim Edges a Close One in the Model

The PuckMetrics model has the Anaheim Ducks as narrow favourites at 55% to beat the Pittsburgh Penguins at Honda Center, with Pittsburgh at 45%. That is a coin flip in practical terms: the model's confidence is low, and a 10-point gap between the two sides leaves plenty of room for the other result.

The most likely final score is Anaheim 4, Pittsburgh 3. Overtime is a real possibility, with the model putting it at 22%, so a one-goal finish is well within the range of outcomes. Expect a game that could tilt either way late.

Anaheim's slight edge comes from the home-ice lean in the projection, but the margin is small enough that this is a game to watch rather than a clear call. Treat the pick as a lean, not a conclusion.

Ducks 55%, Penguins 45%. Our model's most likely score is ANA 4, PIT 3, with overtime at 22%. Low confidence, close game. Watch it late. Analytics only, not betting advice. #NHL #Ducks

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For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Projected score

PIT

3.1

–

ANA

3.2

Most likely final: ANA 3–2 PIT

ANA win: 52%
PIT win: 48%
Goes to OT/SO: 23%

Likeliest scorelines

ANA 3 – 2 PIT8%
ANA 2 – 3 PIT8%
ANA 4 – 3 PIT7%
ANA 3 – 4 PIT7%
ANA 2 – 1 PIT5%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals: 58%
7+ total goals: 48%
ANA by 2+: 26%
PIT by 2+: 24%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +7% applied to ANA.+0.20
Team OffenseANA scoring +10% vs league average, PIT +3% (time-weighted goal model).+0.19
Team DefenseANA allowing +13% vs league average, PIT +6%.-0.19
InjuriesANA without A.J. Greer, Troy Terry, Ian Moore; PIT without Elmer Soderblom, Bryan Rust, Ryan Graves.-0.14
Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.+0.03
Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Lukas Dostal (ANA) -0.10 g/gm; Arturs Silovs (PIT) -0.08 g/gm.-0.02
Recent Form & Shot MetricsGoals model on recent results, rest, shots, special teams and shot-attempt share: ANA 3.30 vs PIT 3.08 expected goals before goalie, injury and market adjustments.-0.02