Model report card, Nov 2 – 8
The HabsMetrics prediction model's weekly report card for Nov 2 – 8: 29 of 42 NHL winners picked (69%). Picking the home team every game would have scored 55%. Record to date: 49 of 82 (60%). Every week is graded after the fact, hits and misses alike.
Weekly report card
Week of Nov 2–Nov 8 · 29 of 42 winners picked
Week of Nov 2–8: model went 29 of 42 (69%), beating home-team picks at 55%
Home teams won 55% · Since Oct 25: 49 of 82 (60%)
The model went 29 of 42 (69%) from November 2 to November 8, a solid week that beat simply picking the home team, which won 55% of the time. Over the record since October 25, the model is 49 of 82 (60%), against a home-team win rate of 52% over the same games. The week lifted the record, but it did not change the picture much: the model is ahead of the home-side baseline, not by a wide margin.
The best call was CAR at 79% over CHI, and Carolina won 9-2. The worst miss was MTL at 62% over WPG, and Winnipeg won 5-4. That is the kind of result a 62% pick should produce now and then. A 62% pick is a lean, not a sure thing, and the model should not be read as if it were one.
HabsMetrics Analytics — For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice