Model report card, Oct 26 – Nov 1

The model finished the week of October 26 to November 1 at 17 of 35 correct (49%). Picking the home team every night would have gone 51% over the same games, so the model trailed the simple home-team baseline by two percentage points. A week near a coin flip is an honest result, not a surprise, but it is still a miss.

Across the record since October 25, the model stands at 20 of 40 (50%), with home teams winning 50% of those games. That means the model has matched the home-team baseline on the record to date, without clearly beating it. The best call was COL over CGY at 73%, a 5-2 Colorado win. The worst miss was ANA at 64% against VAN, which lost 6-5 to Vancouver.