MTLaway
44%at
WPGhome
56%Win probability12-pt gap
Model pick
WPG · 56% to win
Key signals
Team Offense (Goal Model)Team Defense (Goal Model)Home IceInjuriesProjected Goaltending
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINALPrincess Auto Stadium · Oct 25
MTL rest: 0dWPG rest: 1d
Game analysis
Canadiens beat Jets 2–1
- K. Guhle scored the game-winner at 11:04 of the second.
- The Canadiens scored first and led the rest of the way.
- J. Fowler stopped 33 of 34 shots (.971) for the win.
- The Canadiens won despite being outshot 34–21.
- C. Caufield led all scorers with 0 goals and 2 assists.
- Model miss: the Canadiens won with only a 44% pre-game win probability.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starJ. Fowler
MTL · .971 SV%
- 2nd starL. Hutson
MTL · 1G 0A
- 3rd starS. Skinner
WPG · .905 SV%
Scoring summary
1st
No scoring
2nd
- 7:19MTLL. HutsonVideoAssists: N. Dobson, C. Caufield1–0
- 11:04MTLK. GuhleVideoAssists: C. Caufield, J. Slafkovský2–0
3rd
- 15:24WPGI. RosenVideoAssists: G. Vilardi, H. Fleury2–1
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
MTLWPG
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 31 | 29 |
| Blocked | 18 | 14 |
| Power Play | 0/0 | 0/4 |
| Faceoff % | 50.8 | 49.2 |
| Corsi % | -- | -- |
| xG | 2.96 | 3.64 |
| Giveaways | 21 | 18 |
| Takeaways | 3 | 6 |
Winnipeg Jets
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:32 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:35 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 16:50 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:24 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 09:14 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:14 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:07 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:37 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:22 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 09:12 | |
| -- | -- | 40/42 | -- | .952 | 58:25 | |
| -- | -- | 19/21 | -- | .905 | 00:00 |
Montréal Canadiens
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:50 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16:22 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 23:10 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 21:12 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 19:25 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:27 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 25:37 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:01 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14:32 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18:58 | |
| -- | -- | 51/52 | -- | .981 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 33/34 | -- | .971 | 00:00 |
Projected score
MTL
2.6
–
WPG
3.0
Most likely final: WPG 3–2 MTL · Actual: 1–2
- WPG win
- 56%
- MTL win
- 44%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 26%
Likeliest scorelines
- WPG 3 – 2 MTL9%
- WPG 2 – 3 MTL8%
- WPG 2 – 1 MTL7%
- WPG 4 – 3 MTL7%
- WPG 1 – 2 MTL6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 46%
- 7+ total goals
- 36%
- WPG by 2+
- 28%
- MTL by 2+
- 19%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team OffenseWPG scoring -6% vs league average, MTL +1% (time-weighted goal model).-0.21
- Team DefenseWPG allowing -5% vs league average, MTL +1%.+0.17
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to WPG.+0.14
- InjuriesWPG without Josh Morrissey, Vladislav Namestnikov; MTL without Nick Suzuki, Florian Xhekaj, Ivan Demidov.+0.14
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Stuart Skinner (WPG) +0.03 g/gm; Jakub Dobes (MTL) -0.10 g/gm.+0.13
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
MTL
Actual (from shift data)L1
12:23
Injured / Scratched
- Nick Suzukiother · Upper Body
- Sam Montembeaultinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Ivan Demidovinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Bryce Pickfordinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Lucas Condottainjured-reserve · Undisclosed
WPG
Actual (from shift data)L4
6:59
D2
13:05
17:39
38Ferraro
17:19
Injured / Scratched
- Josh Morrisseyinjured-reserve · Right Wrist
- Nick Bjugstadlong-term-injured-reserve · Left Pectoral (Surgery)
- Garrett Browninjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Vladislav Namestnikovinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice