FLAaway
46%at
WSHhome
54%Win probability8-pt gap
Model pick
WSH · 54% to win
Key signals
Team Offense (Goal Model)Home IceTeam Defense (Goal Model)InjuriesMarket Consensus Blend
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINALCapital One Arena · Nov 7
FLA rest: 1dWSH rest: 2d
Game analysis
Capitals beat Panthers 4–3
- P. Dubois scored the game-winner at 4:42 of the third.
- A back-and-forth game: the lead changed hands 2 times.
- L. Thompson stopped 27 of 30 shots (.900) for the win.
- Power play: WSH 0/3, FLA 1/5.
- M. Tkachuk led all scorers with 0 goals and 3 assists.
- PuckMetrics model had the Capitals as 54% favourites — it called this one.
PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starP. Dubois
WSH · 1G 1A
- 2nd starA. Protas
WSH · 1G 1A
- 3rd starB. Tkachuk
FLA · 2G 0A
Scoring summary
1st
- 2:21WSHJ. St. Ivany0–1
- 3:13FLAB. TkachukAssists: M. Tkachuk1–1
- 10:00FLAB. TkachukPPAssists: M. Tkachuk, S. Jones2–1
3rd
- 4:42WSHP. DuboisAssists: A. Protas2–4
- 19:13FLAS. BennettAssists: M. Tkachuk, S. Reinhart3–4
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
FLAWSH
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 31 | 8 |
| Blocked | 13 | 15 |
| Power Play | 1/5 | 0/3 |
| Faceoff % | 51.8 | 48.2 |
| Corsi % | -- | -- |
| xG | -- | -- |
| Giveaways | 21 | 19 |
| Takeaways | 7 | 6 |
Washington Capitals
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 2 | 15:44 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 3 | 15:15 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 14:32 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 24:01 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 13:50 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14:16 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 17:59 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14:42 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 16:38 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16:10 | |
| -- | -- | 38/41 | -- | .927 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 27/30 | -- | .900 | 00:00 |
Florida Panthers
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 3 | 23:55 | |
| 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 7 | 21:29 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 18:43 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 24:45 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 26:31 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 05:13 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16:11 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:08 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 21:22 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16:38 | |
| -- | -- | 43/47 | -- | .915 | 58:59 | |
| -- | -- | 27/31 | -- | .871 | 00:00 |
Projected score
FLA
3.1
–
WSH
3.3
Most likely final: WSH 3–2 FLA · Actual: 4–3
- WSH win
- 54%
- FLA win
- 46%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 23%
Likeliest scorelines
- WSH 3 – 2 FLA8%
- WSH 2 – 3 FLA7%
- WSH 4 – 3 FLA7%
- WSH 3 – 4 FLA7%
- WSH 2 – 1 FLA5%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 59%
- 7+ total goals
- 48%
- WSH by 2+
- 28%
- FLA by 2+
- 22%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team OffenseWSH scoring +7% vs league average, FLA +0% (time-weighted goal model).+0.20
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to WSH.+0.18
- Team DefenseWSH allowing +5% vs league average, FLA -0%.-0.15
- InjuriesWSH without Vincent Desharnais, Rasmus Sandin; FLA without Anton Lundell, Brad Marchand, Jonah Gadjovich.+0.11
- Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.-0.08
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Logan Thompson (WSH) -0.04 g/gm; Jacob Markstrom (FLA) -0.03 g/gm.-0.01
PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
FLA
Actual (from shift data)L2
7:21
Injured / Scratched
- Anton Lundellother · Undisclosed
- Brad Marchandinjured-reserve · Left Knee
- Aleksander Barkovlong-term-injured-reserve · Left Knee
- Jonah Gadjovichlong-term-injured-reserve · Neck (Surgery)
WSH
Actual (from shift data)L3
5:42
Injured / Scratched
- Patrick Thomasinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Vincent Desharnaisinjured-reserve · Abdomen (Surgery)
- Rasmus Sandinlong-term-injured-reserve · Right Knee (Surgery)
PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice